Historian Allan Lichtman on Why Presidential Campaigns Don’t Matter

Kamala Harris is going to be our next president. So says the historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election except one since 1984.

American University professor Allan Lichtman,along with a noted expert in earthquake prediction, came up with a method of forecasting elections that Lichtman calls “the 13 keys.”

He explained them in his 1990 book Thirteen Keys to the Presidency. I talked with him when that book was first published.

Get your copy of Allan Lichtman’s book

As you listen to this interview, you have to put yourself back in 1990, less than halfway through George H.W. Bush’s term. And listen as Lichtman hints that Bush may already be set up to lose in ;92 – an election two and a half years in the future.

Sol here now, from 1990, Allan Lichtman.

By the way, the only election Lichtman got wrong in the last 40 years was the 2000 Bush v. Gore contest. Lichtman did correctly predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote.

Allan Lichtman is 77 now. He has taught at American University.since 1973.

Jimmy Carter

Jimmy Carter with Bill’s daughters Jennifer (left) and Krystal

Next week is our presidential election, so I thought it appropriate today to hear from one of our former presidents.

I first met Jimmy Carter in 1987, and interviewed him several times over the years, including this conversation, from 1993.

Mr. Carter had just written a book for young people, about peace, and war. I brought both of my daughters, ages 11 and 13, with me that day to meet our 39th president.

And as you’re about to hear, it’s very apparent why this very good man has been a force for peace for decades.,

So here now, from 1993, Jimmy Carter.

Former president Jimmt Carter turned 96 on October 1st. And despite various health challenges, he remains very active in a number of Pursuits.

Geraldine Ferraro

Tonight, October 7th, Senator Kamala Harris will meet Vice President Mike Pence in their one and only debate of the 2020 election campaign.

Photo: Univ of Texas-Arlington News Service Photograph Collection

Harris is the first woman of color on a major party presidential ticket, and she is only the third woman ever nominated by a major party for vice president.

The first, in 1984, was Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro, who was chosen by Democrat Walter Mondale to be his running mate.

Her one and only debate performance was against then-incumbent Vice President George H.W. Bush.

I met Gerladine Ferraro in 1998. The book she had just written was about the strong women who shaped her life, not least of whom was her own mother.

Sp here now, from 1998, Geraldine Ferraro:

Geraldinme Ferraro died in 2011 at the age of 75.